CURRENT STATUS as at 7th May 2009
Next update expected by 21st May 2009 (two weeks after this update).
Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral. Both the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface and sub-surface have continued to warm over the past few weeks, resulting in near average ocean temperatures across most of the tropical Pacific, but slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east. Trade winds have weakened further, and are now widely weaker than average. The SOI rose from zero in March to +9 in April, however the current (5 May) 30-day value has fallen slightly to +7 and remains in the neutral range.
Most international coupled climate models predict further warming of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, with SSTs remaining in the ENSO-neutral range until at least mid-winter. About half of the models surveyed are predicting that this warming will be sufficient to see the development of El Niño conditions later in 2009, but the southern autumn is the "predictability barrier" for model predictions, with skill levels at their minimum. As the period from March-June is the preferred El Niño genesis period, Pacific conditions and model predictions will continue to be monitored closely for any indications of an event.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The typical development period for an IOD event is late autumn to early winter, therefore model predictions will continue to be monitored closely for any signs of an emerging event


