الموقع الاوروبي يصنف الحالة المتوقعة علينا من الدرجة الاولى
و يحذر من البرد ذو الحجم الكبير و الرياح القوية
A level 1 was issued for S Iberia and N Morocco towards N Tunisia mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts.
...S Iberia, N Morocco towards N Tunisia...
In a hot and relatively dry airmass, some 800 - 1200 J/kg CAPE are forecast by GFS. Strong upper level winds provide some 20 - 25 m/s deep layer shear and 200 - 300 m²/s² SRH3 which may lead to high-based multicells and a few supercells, capable of producing isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Towards Spain, instability should decrease but due to an upper vort-max, forcing should increase. Although hodographs show a wind profile favourable for supercells, only a level 1 is issued due to the strong capping inversion at mid altitudes which will reduce storm coverage.
...S Italy...
A similar situation is expected for S Italy and Sicily where some low to moderate CAPE is simulated in an environment with strong deep layer shear and locally enhanced SRH. Isolated multicells and supercells may produce large hail and severe wind gusts and may tend to merge into one or two MCSs with severe wind gusts as main
09-19-2010, 02:16 PM
رد: المتابعة والرصد الدقيق لـ [ سهيل حتى الوسمي ] في العالم العربي 2010 م
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