تحديث أخر من موقع مركز تنبؤات المناخ الاسترالي والذي يؤكد ماتوصل إليه المركز الأمريكي بأنه يوجد مؤشرات قوية لولادة ظاهرة النينو خريف وشتاء موسم 2009-2010 وذلك بمشيئة الله سبحانه وتعالى :
:Summary: Strong indicators of El Niño persist
Indicators suggest an El Niño event is developing across the Pacific Basin. Conditions have reached a point that, should they persist at such levels through the remainder of the southern winter and into spring, 2009 will be considered an El Niño year.
Leading climate models indicate that warming of the Pacific will continue for the next few seasons, with very little chance of the current development stalling or reversing.
Continuing El Niño signals include central Pacific Ocean surface temperatures around 1°C above average, and supporting sub-surface temperatures up to 4°C warmer than normal. Trade winds remain weaker than average, and there is an emerging signal of enhanced cloudiness near the date-line
Conversely, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose over the past week to near zero. However, this would appear to be a response to local weather conditions near Darwin and Tahiti, rather than a long-term climate signal, and hence the SOI is likely to fall again in the weeks ahead.
El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.
After many weeks of positive values, the most recent value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), was slightly negative. In the past, positive IOD values have been associated with drier conditions through south east Australia in winter and spring.
07-11-2009, 03:06 PM
رد: السلام عليكم ورحمة الله: عدنا لكم بعد غياب لتحديث موضوع ظاهرة النينا
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