[أبوسلطان]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله
تحديث للموضوع بتاريخ 3 - 6 - 1430 هـ الموافق 27 مايو 2009 م

في أخر تحديث لمركز التوقعات الجوية الاسترالي فأنه يشير إلى أن أكثر من 50% من نماذج قياس الاحوال الجوية (الموديلز) تتوقع وبمشيئة الله تعالى أن تتطور ظاهرة النينو بنهاية هذا العام 2009 م بشكل كبير:

Summary: Tropical Pacific warms as El Niño risk increase

Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral, although recent trends are consistent with the very early stages of a developing El Niño. These will continue to be monitored very closely during the next few months. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has continued to warm over the past few weeks and the SOI has fallen rapidly to an approximate 30-day value of −7; the value for April was +9. Also, the Trade winds have remained weaker than average across most of the Pacific.
All international climate models predict further warming of the Pacific Ocean sea surface, with most forecasting sea surface temperatures to remain in the neutral range until at least mid-winter. Half of the models surveyed are predicting that this warming will be sufficient to see the development of El Niño conditions later in 2009. However, the southern autumn is the "predictability barrier" for model predictions, with skill levels at their minimum, so model outputs should be used with caution.