[عساس الوادي]

ARB 02/2011/08 Dated: 01.11. 2011
Time of issue: 1930 hours IST

Sub: Deep Depression over westcentral Arabian Sea.
The deep depression over west central Arabian Sea moved westward and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 1^ST November 2011 over westcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 16.0⁰N and longitude 55.5⁰E, about 2100 km west-northwest of Mangalore (Karnataka), 400 km north-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 200 km southeast of Salalah (Oman). The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast close to south of Salalah around evening/night of 2^nd November 2011.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
<table border="1" bordercolor="#000000" cellpadding="7" cellspacing="0" width="600"> <col width="146"> <col width="166"> <col width="245"> <tbody><tr valign="TOP"> <td width="146"> Date/Time(IST)
</td> <td width="166"> Position (lat. ⁰N/ long. ⁰E)
</td> <td width="245"> Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
</td> </tr> <tr valign="TOP"> <td width="146"> 01-11-2011/1730
</td> <td width="166"> 16.0/55.5
</td> <td width="245"> 50-60 gusting to70
</td> </tr> <tr valign="TOP"> <td width="146"> 01-11-2011/2330
</td> <td width="166"> 16.1/55.2
</td> <td width="245"> 55-65 gusting to 75
</td> </tr> <tr valign="TOP"> <td width="146"> 02-11-2011/0530
</td> <td width="166"> 16.3/54.9
</td> <td width="245"> 65-75 gusting to 85
</td> </tr> <tr valign="TOP"> <td width="146"> 02-11-2011/1130
</td> <td width="166"> 16.5/54.6
</td> <td width="245"> 70-80 gusting to 90
</td> </tr> <tr valign="TOP"> <td width="146"> 02-11-2011/1730
</td> <td width="166"> 16..7/54.2
</td> <td width="245"> 70-80 gusting to 90
</td> </tr> <tr valign="TOP"> <td width="146"> 03-11-2011/0530
</td> <td width="166"> 17.1/53.5
</td> <td width="245"> 65-75 gusting to85
</td> </tr> <tr valign="TOP"> <td width="146"> 03-11-2011/1730
</td> <td width="166"> 17.5/52.8
</td> <td width="245"> 55.-65 gusting to75
</td> </tr> <tr valign="TOP"> <td width="146"> 04-11-2011/0530
</td> <td width="166"> 18.0/52.0
</td> <td width="245"> 40-50 gusting to60
</td> </tr> <tr valign="TOP"> <td width="146"> 04-11-2011/1730
</td> <td width="166"> 18.5/51.0
</td> <td width="245"> 30-40 gusting to75
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> The deep depression is not expected to cause adverse weather along and off west of coast of India. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development.
The next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 2^nd November, 2011