[أبوسلطان]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته



اليوم نقدر نقول مع السلامة اللانينا ويامرحبا بموسم قادم نتمنى أن تكون فيه ظاهرة النينو هي المسيطرة.


في أخر تقارير مراكز أبحاث الطقس (الاسترالية و الأمريكية نوا) تم الاعلان رسمياً عن ظهور علامات أكيدة عن بداية ضعف ظاهرة النينا التي كانت مسيطرة طوال التسعة الأشهر الماضية.

إليكم إقتباس مما نشر من هذين المركزين المرموقين:

1- تقرير مركز نوا الشهير:

ENSO-Neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely during May-June 2011

Nearly all of the ENSO model forecasts weaken La Niña in the coming months (Fig. 6). A majority of the models predict a return to ENSO-neutral conditions by May-June-July 2011, although some models persist a weaker La Niña into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. Recent trends in the observations and models do not offer many hints on which outcome is more likely. Also, model skill is historically at a minimum during the Northern Hemisphere spring (the “spring barrier”). Therefore La Niña is expected to weaken during the next several months, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions equally likely during May-June 2011.



2- التقرير الصادر يوم أمس من مركز التنبؤات الاسترالي:

La Niña event now passed its peak



Issued on Wednesday 16 February 2011

he La Niña event which has dominated the Australian climate for the past nine months is showing signs of weakening. Pacific Ocean temperatures, most notably below the surface, have warmed, while atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloud patterns have eased from their respective peaks in early January.

These observations are consistent with both the life cycle of past La Niña events and long-range climate models, which show the Pacific gradually warming during the southern autumn of 2011. All available climate models suggest further weakening of the La Niña is likely through autumn, with most indicating a return to neutral conditions by winter 2011. However, there remains some risk that the event may reform after autumn.

During La Niña events, tropical cyclone numbers are typically higher than normal during the November to April period, with February and March the peak. The influence of La Niña on Australian rainfall and temperature typically peaks during winter to mid-summer, and then weakens during the following autumn.