المشاركة الأصلية بواسطة : اللامي (المشاركة 220610) Giovannaأخطر أعاصير المحيط الهندي يهدد مدغشقر http://img103.herosh.com/2012/02/10/966777896.jpg بالرغم من مرور أكثر من اعصار في مياه المحيط الهندي خلال الأيام الماضية الا أن الاعصارGiovanna الذي تشكل بسرعة بالقرب من جزيرة موريشس ، قد يكون هو الأخطر من سابقيه ، واصبح الآن يهددها موريشس وهو في طريقه الى جزيرة مدغشقر ، والتي ستكون المحطة الأخطر في رحلة هذا الاعصار . http://img105.herosh.com/2012/02/10/530434839.jpg المرحلة الأولى عند تشكل الاعصار http://img104.herosh.com/2012/02/10/579908521.jpg الاعصارGiovanna في أحدث صورة له ، حيث بدأت المواقع المتخصصة في رصد الأعاصير تتابع حركة الاعصار بمزيد من صور الأقمار الصناعية . http://img102.herosh.com/2012/02/09/801023218.gif من ناحية ثانية بدأ اعصار Jasmine في التلاشي بالقرب من كالدونيا الجديدة في مياه المحيط الهادي ،بسبب دخوله منطقة المرتفعات الجوية وتراجع قوة التسخين .<!-- / message -->

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الاعصارGiovanna في أحدث صورة له ، حيث بدأت المواقع المتخصصة في رصد الأعاصير تتابع حركة الاعصار بمزيد من صور الأقمار الصناعية .

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شكر اللامي

عين الاعصار تقترب من مدغشقر ، ومن المتوقع ان يتحول لاعصار من الدرجة الثالثة بملامسته للجزيرة
بسرعة تتراوح مابين
130-111 ميل في الساعة


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Strong Cyclone Giovanna approaches Madagascar

UPDATED FEBRUARY 12, 2012 5:40 P.M. CST (23:40 UTC). Since this morning, Giovanna has exploded into a monster hurricane. On the morning of February 12, 2012, it had winds around 100 mph. Based on satellite imagery, Giovanna is now probably a strong Category 3 or 4 storm with winds over 130 mph.


FEBRUARY 12, 2012 11:06 A.M CST (17:06 UTC) A very strong cyclone in the Indian Ocean, called Giovanna, has developed and is pushing towards the Madagascar coast. Cyclone Giovanna became the 12th depression in the 2012 Indian ocean and quickly strengthened into the seventh named storm. Giovanna currently has sustained winds approximately around 100 miles per hour (at least 85 knots). In the Indian Ocean, we do not have hurricane aircraft that flies into tropical systems, so all of these estimates are based from satellite imagery of the storm. Giovanna rapidly intensified into a strong cyclone back on February 10, 2012 and quickly formed a pinhole eye.




Residents of central and eastern portions of Madasgascar should be preparing now and evacuate the coastal areas as this storm is projected to make landfall on February 13, 2012 as a major cyclone with winds sustained of at least 100 mph.
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Tropical Storm Giovanna formed over the open Indian Ocean. It quickly became
a strong cyclone. Image Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team

Giovanna formed on February 9, 2012 and quickly organized into a super cyclone by February 10, 2012. The most interesting part of this storm was how rapidly it intensified over the open waters of the western Indian Ocean. The storm quickly gathered strength and formed a pinhole eye. When cyclones, also called hurricanes (Atlantic) and typhoons (western Pacific) rapidly intensify, the eye can sometimes be extremely small within the center of circulation. If the eyewall is between one to three miles wide, the cyclone can be considered to have a pinhole eye. Pinhole eyes are typically rare occurrences, and most cyclones never develop them. In the Atlantic Ocean, the most memorable pinhole eye occurred in 2005 when Major Hurricane Wilma significantly intensified into the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin with a barometric pressure of 882 millibars. These eyewalls indicate rapid intensification and can cause a lot of fluctuations in strength for a tropical cyclone. Cyclones have a difficult time maintaining strength when they are powerful cyclones with winds over 130 mph. They fluctuate in intensity by going through eyewall replacement cycles. When Giovanna developed a pinhole eye, it had sustain winds of 140 mph with gusts around 155 mph. In the Saffir-Simpson scale, that would make Giovanna a very strong and dangerous Category 4 storm. However, the eyewall had a replacement cycle, and the storm weakened back into a Category 3 storm.

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Image of Giovanna with a pinhole eye on February 11, 2012. Image Credit: CIMSS


Giovanna is currently in a favorable environment for continued strengthening as wind shear is low and ocean waters are very warm. The current forecast is for Giovanna to strike central/eastern Madagascar as a strong Category 3 storm with sustain winds around 110 knots (at least 125 mph). As of this morning (February 12, 2012), the strongest convection of storms (highest/coldest cloud tops) are across the western portions of the system. Just like other tropical cyclones, winds will not be the only issues regarding this system. Waves, storm surge, and flooding could be another issue for Madagascar as it pushes westward. Wave heights are estimated around 24 feet, and those along the southern/central portions of the east coast of Madagascar will likely get the full force of Giovanna as the strongest winds and direct winds/surf against the coast will occur due to the location of the circulation. This storm is producing a lot of deep convection, which shows a strong cyclone and very intense rain. I would not rule out five to ten inches of rain with some areas receiving more than a foot of rain.


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Track of Giovanna has the storm pushing directly into the central portions of Madagascar. Image Credit: Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Another major concern about this storm is that once it pushes out of Madagascar, it will likely bring more rains to a flood prone area across Mozambique in southeastern Africa. Mozambique has already been hit by storms such as Cyclone Funso that produced a lot of rain and major flooding across the region. Giovanna will likely be a weaker storm system after it moves across the mountainous areas of Madagascar, but the system will still provide flash flooding across Mozambique. The storm is projected to push into this region later this week, around February 15-17. In fact, based from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts, Giovanna could restrengthen as it pushes into southern portions of Mozambique. All residents of Mozambique should closely monitor this situation as it evolves.

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Latest infrared image of Giovanna on February 12, 2012. Image Credit: CIMSS

Bottom line: Cyclone Giovanna will push westward into Madagascar as a major cyclone with sustained winds of at least 115 mph. Flooding, storm surge, and wind damage is very likely as it pushes into Madagascar on February 13, 2012. Forecasting intensity of a cyclone is rather difficult, but atmospheric conditions show a favorable environment for the storm to remain potent. The only intensity issue would be based on an eyewall replacement cycle. If one occurs before it hits Madagascar, it could weaken prior to landfall. Residents across the entire eastern coast of Madagascar should be ready for a strong cyclone capable of producing a lot of damage across this region. Once this storm pushes over Madagascar, it will emerge over the Mozambique Channel and possibly restrengthen back into a cyclone of winds stronger than 75 mph. Once again, Mozambique residents should closely monitor this situation, especially since they have been significantly battered by cyclones Dando and Funso over the past month that have provided flooding rains in the region.

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الاعصار جيوفانا يضرب مدغشقر
وتحذير من دمارهائل

Cyclone Giovanna threatens Madagascar, “massive destruction” possible


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Satellite image of tropical cylcone Giovanna as it nears the east coast of Madagascar Monday morning. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)




Extremely dangerous cyclone Giovanna, equivalent to a category 4 hurricane, is set to make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar today. The powerful storm contains maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (125 knots) and may produce extensive damage on this island off the southeastern coast of Africa.
Satellite imagery reveals a storm with a well-defined eye, excellent symmetry and deep convection around its core. Its outer bands are already lashing the coast and the eye should move ashore late today.


Concerns are mounting about the toll the storm may afflict on this relatively poor country, especially as it may target highly populated areas. John Uniack Davis, Madagascar’s director for the humanitarian organization CARE, told the United Nations news agency IRIN that if the storm center moves just south of the coastal port of Toamasina “it has the potential to cause massive destruction.”
AccuWeather’s Jesse Ferrell, reviewing the history of storms to strike Madascar, found that Giovanna’s track most closely remembles cyclone Geralda from 1994. That storm “destroyed 80% of the city’s seaport Toamasina.” IRIN news said Geralda “killed about 200 people, displaced 40,000 and affected another 500,000.”
In addition to the destructive category 4 intensity winds, a large storm surge and 4-8” or more of flooding rain are also likely with this storm.
Wunderground’s Jeff Masters notes an elevated risk of damagerelative to past storms due to deforestation over the last 30 years, which will worsen runoff from flood waters.
As Giovanna crosses Madagascar, it will weaken considerably before it re-emerges over the water late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is then forecast to strike Mozambique as a tropical storm or depression late this week.

مع الشكر الجزيل للأخ فيصل

الاعصار جيوفانا يضرب مدغشقر ويقتل شخص على الأقل

تناناريف (رويترز) - قالت السلطات في مدغشقر ان اعصارا من الفئة الرابعة ضرب الشواطئ الشرقية للبلاد يوم الثلاثاء فقتل امرأة على الاقل وسبب انقطاعا في الكهرباء في بعض البلدات الرئيسية.
وأغلقت مدارس ومكاتب في مدينة تاماتافي الساحلية الشرقية ليوم ثان مع استمرار هطول الامطار الغزيرة وهبوب الرياح القوية على ساحل البحر بعدما ضرب الاعصار جيوفانا الجزيرة.
وقال الان ماهافيمبينا المسؤول الكبير في انتسينانانا لرويترز "قتلت امرأة في بريكافيل بعدما سقط فوقها عامود للكهرباء."
ومدغشقر عرضة للاعاصير والعواصف المدارية خاصة في موسم الامطار من فبراير شباط الى مايو أيار. وكان الاعصار ايفان قد ضرب مدغشقر في عام 2008 وتسبب في مقتل أكثر من 80 شخصا وتشريد أكثر من 200 ألف اخرين.
وقال جويل ميلامارو وهو ساكن في تاماتافي لرويترز "تاماتافي مثل مدينة للاشباح.. الطرق مهجورة."
وفي العاصمة تناناريف قطعت السلطات الكهرباء وطلبت من سائقي السيارات الابتعاد عن الطرق وطلبت من المحلات اغلاق أبوابها لاستمرار السيول يوم الثلاثاء.
وحذرت نشرة جوية خاصة في الصباح من "خطر وشيك."
وأظهرت بيانات قدمها مركز البحرية والقوات الجوية الامريكية المشترك للتحذير من الاعاصير أن رياحا تصل سرعتها الى نحو 231 كيلومترا في الساعة تدفع بالاعصار ناحية مدغشقر. ووصل قلب الاعصار الى اليابسة جنوبي تاماتافي.
وقال موقع ادارة الطيران والفضاء الامريكية (ناسا) انه يتوقع أن يضعف الاعصار مع مروره فوق مدغشقر رابع أكبر جزيرة في العالم.
وأضافت ناسا "يتوقع أن يتحرك الى قناة موزامبيق وربما تشتد قوته مرة أخرى."

© Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved

هذا ثاني اعصار يؤثر على مدغشقرهذا العام الاول كان بشكل جزئي اما الاعصار الذي انتهى للتو فقد اثر عليها بشكل مباشر
الملاحظ انه عندما يقع في الخليج الذي غرب مدغشقر يتحرك جنوب بسرعه ثم يتلاشى
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