السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته


حسب أخر الدراسات والبحوث العالمية فأنها تشير إلى إنتهاء ظاهرة اللانينا وحاليا نعيش حالة محايدة قد تتطور إلى ظاهرة النينو بنهاية هذا العام مع توقع بإرتفاع درجات الحرارة على نصف الكرة الشمالي إن شاء الله تعالى .

نقدر نقول وداعا لظاهرة اللانينا و جعلها إن شاء الله ما تعود بسلامتنا وسلامتكم .

CURRENT STATUS as at 7<SUP>th</SUP> May 2009
Next update expected by 21<SUP>st</SUP> May 2009 (two weeks after this update).

Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral. Both the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface and sub-surface have continued to warm over the past few weeks, resulting in near average ocean temperatures across most of the tropical Pacific, but slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east. Trade winds have weakened further, and are now widely weaker than average. The SOI rose from zero in March to +9 in April, however the current (5 May) 30-day value has fallen slightly to +7 and remains in the neutral range.
Most international coupled climate models predict further warming of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, with SSTs remaining in the ENSO-neutral range until at least mid-winter. About half of the models surveyed are predicting that this warming will be sufficient to see the development of El Niño conditions later in 2009, but the southern autumn is the "predictability barrier" for model predictions, with skill levels at their minimum. As the period from March-June is the preferred El Niño genesis period, Pacific conditions and model predictions will continue to be monitored closely for any indications of an event.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The typical development period for an IOD event is late autumn to early winter, therefore model predictions will continue to be monitored closely for any signs of an emerging event

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السلام عليكم ورحمة الله
تحديث للموضوع بتاريخ 3 - 6 - 1430 هـ الموافق 27 مايو 2009 م

Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral, although recent trends are consistent with the very early stages of a developing El Niño. These will continue to be monitored very closely during the next few months. The equatorial Pacific Ocean has continued to warm over the past few weeks and the SOI has fallen rapidly to an approximate 30-day value of −7; the value for April was +9. Also, the Trade winds have remained weaker than average across most of the Pacific.
All international climate models predict further warming of the Pacific Ocean sea surface, with most forecasting sea surface temperatures to remain in the neutral range until at least mid-winter. Half of the models surveyed are predicting that this warming will be sufficient to see the development of El Niño conditions later in 2009. However, the southern autumn is the "predictability barrier" for model predictions, with skill levels at their minimum, so model outputs should be used with caution.